Wednesday, March 18, 2009

Nikkei and USDJPY fall

The US dollar generally ended Tuesday down against the majors, despite US economic news was generally positive, as data showed that both housing starts and building permits surged in February to 583K and 547K, respectively. Lower risk aversion and Chinese sales of US Dollar  are two factors weighing on the greenback.

USDJPY has been edging downward and reached bottom at 19:00 GMT. Prices reversed with a engulfing candle at COG orange curve. It went to a top at 23:45 GMT candle at 76.4% retracement and the resistance downward sloping trendline. (see above chart of 15 MTF)

At the top a possibility of an evening star candle is formed with a provision that the subsequent candle is a solid bearish candle.  Therefore I am looking for candles to close well below the opening at 24:00 GMT. Prices .Refer to my 1 MTF scalp trade chart below.

After the evening star, I am looking to short USDJPY below 97.65 about 10 pips below the low of the reversal candle. Prices for one hour moved sideway within the aqua color triangle. Than at 1:04 GMT price spike downward after Nikkei fall below yesterday closing after being up over 1%, and making its way back above 8,000 for the first time in over a month on the back of building stocks and the financials .  I could not take advantage of the fall as the move down  of 20 pips was fast and furious.

The first position I took was at the first aqua triangle after  USDJPY bounced off the pivot point with a sell signal of  B&S, LCD and MACD.

My second entry was a buy with a buy signal of MACD and B&S with the red lag moving above 15. The third entry was a sell with corresponding B&S, LCD and MACD. The red and blue lags was moving below 85.

The final entry  for the session aws a buy with buy signal of B&S, LCD and MACD with blue lag already above 15 and red lag started approaching the 15 level.  




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