Tuesday, March 31, 2009

Early April Fool for USDJPY

Yesterday main factor in USDJPY was the end of Japanese financial year which manage to pushed the cross downward to about 96.00 from  98.30. USDJPY was able to recover 30 minutes after London opened and carried the cross over to 97.50 at noon New York time. USDJPY closed at about 50% retracement of the day high and Low. 

This morning, the early affecting events will be the Nikkei moves and Tokyo trade data. 

Last night, Wall Street was battered with the Dow fall by 3.3% and S&P 500 by 3.5%  due to concerns over outlook of U.S. automakers. 

The trade data reflected negative sentiment; 

Japans February Jobless rate came in at 4.4%, a touch worse than the expected forecast of 4.3%, thus rising to a 3 year high. The jobs to applicant ratio was 0.59, a 6 year low.

 

March Manufacturing PMI rises to 33.8  from 31.6 in Feb and the Manufacturing Output Index rises to 25.9 from 22.7 in Feb. This is the 13th straight month of contraction in manufacturing activity as the Index stays well below the 50 mark. 

Japan February Household spending was up 0.3% month on month. Year on Year it came in at -3.5%. Forecast was for -4.6%. 

Traders was expecting a poor performance for Nikkei with USDJPY to behave in similar fashion but  Nikkei was up 1.68% in early trade at 8,374.57, reversing opening declines, and after sinking 4.5% Monday. The financial year end bearish yen seem to be abated. 

My 1 MTF scalp trade as per chart below. Enter my long position at 23:53 GMT (the first aqua color triangle) on buy signal of blue lag, Double CCI, B&S, LCD and MACD. Existed at 0:12 GMT for  27 pips profit. Second entry at 0:23 GMT with a profit target of 10 pips. Exited  20 minutes later. total profit for the Asian session is 37 pips. 


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