Retail sales, which have taken a beating during the recession, is expected to post a small gain in March.
Wall Street analysts surveyed by Thomson Reuters expect retail sales increased 0.3 percent last month after dipping 0.1 percent in February. Economists expect a slight bump in auto sales in March contributed to the overall rebound.
According to retailers' reports, sales showed some encouraging signs of stabilizing last month. Consumer spending is closely watched by economists because it accounts for about 70 percent of total economic activity.
Therefore, retails sales report at 12:30 GMTwill set the tone in the forex and stock market.
The retail sales report came uo with a surprise, a tumbled of 1.1 % instead of an improvement of 0.3%.
After the announcement USDJPY fall from 99.95 to 99.15 within 30 minutes. There was a rebound to 38.2% retracement i.e at 99.50. I took my short sales at that level i.e at 16:23 and 35 minutes later I exited the position and enter a long position.
This morning, I expected risk aversion a main theme in the forex market with Yen cross strengthening.
USDJPY S/R Level:
1. 24:00 GMT- round number 99.00.
2. Spud fibo 61.8%-99.14 and 50%-99.06
3. Daily pivot-99.03
USDJPY did recovered during the early morning Australian/Asian session but it was more like a dead cat bounce. It moved passed the 99.00, the daily pivot and the spud fibo 50% level. On the 5 MTF chart at 3:20 a bearish evening star is formed.
Made my short entry at 3:24 with CCI 21 crossing 30 sma, The blue lag moving below 85 and MACD with negative cross.
My first target is at 200 ema (the red line) but with Nikkei sliding under negative territory and USDJPY cross the 200 ema, than pullback but bounce of the 200 ema my next target is the low of yesterday at 98.73 or the S1 level-98,67
