Thursday, February 26, 2009

US existing-home sales

At 15:00 GMT, statistic on US existing-home sales will be released. 

Since 11:00 GMT (two hours before the opening US session) USDJPY has been hovering around the opening price of the day (i.e. the start of Asian session) at 96.56. 

At 12:57 GMT (13:57 on the chart) price bounced from the 96.56 (the dark red line) and there was a buy signal (refer to the 1st blue triangle area). At the entry point, the 200 ema is looking to converge with the 50 sma indicating price will ranging. Placed my 1 min scalp 1st entry at 96.60. Since I am expecting  prices will be ranging in the short term, my profit target is for 10 pips only. Three minutes later, a reversal trade signal (a red B&S and red LCD) appeared. I entered the stop and reversed position at 96.58 for a 2 pips lost. Three minutes later I have to enter the stop and reversed position again due to the buy signal at 96.62. The short position caused me 4 pips lost. I closed the previous buy entry at 96.72 for my profit target of 10 pips (the blue rectangle). I ignored the subsequent sell signal since the entry is closed to the support level. 

At the second blue triangle I entered a buy position at 96.66. The price touched the upper BB and then formed a hanging man candle. Closed the buy entry at 96.70 for 4 pips profit. The buy signal at the third blue triangle initiated my buy entry at 96.70. Prices at  two candles later touched the upper BB and the subsequent bar showed weakness and I exited the trade for 1 pip lost. 

At the second blue rectangle with a buy signal caused my short entry at 96.67 . The next two candles formed a reversal morning star. Stop my short at 96.68 for a loss of 1 pip. 

The 4th triangle with a buy signal at 13:49 GMT. The next candle confirmed the high closed doji of the previous candle (a bullish sign). Five candles later prices started gapping up and my first target is at 96.80. Without any sign of reversal the second profit target is at the double zero level of 97.00 for a profit of 30 pips. 

USDJPY was ranging within 10 pips for the first hour of US session before exploding one hour before the released of home sales data. I was trying to catch the price explosion after a tight range consolidation 30 minutes before major economic news. I managed to get a 36 pips profit in my one hour scalping period.


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