I trade on 1 MTF chart using a 5 MTF chart signal for entry and exist reference with 30 MTF chart as guidance for long term trend.
I only trade EURJPY since it fits my personality with its intraday price range move is within my profit objective. As EURJPY is actively traded in Asia and Europe, my analysis will take into account price and news that happened during the previous day especially during Europe/New York session and current early Asian session.
Let see the 30 MTF chart for 24th, 25th and 26th February.
24 Feb
Yesterday risk aversion moves caused EURJPY to trend downward. Based on the previous days price activities, after price substantial move, price will consolidate. Therefore today we expect a consolidation. On MACD and lag indicator, at my trading hour market is overbought but made no effort to move away from a tight range moved experience since late New York session.
25 Feb
The technical and fundamental signs showed that EURJPY fall further. Standard & Poor's on Wednesday maintained Greece's BBB+ long-term and A-2 short-term sovereign credit ratings but warned that a ratings cut, of one to two notches, is possible within a month. That underscored that the situation has stabilized but with possibility of downgrading if they don't follow through on the austerity measures. A one-day strike by major Greek unions yesterday in protest of the government's tough plans to slash the deficit add a new pressure on the euro.
EURJPY fall from 122.60 to around 120.20. MACD and lag is at overbought position at 6:00 GMT.
26 Feb
During New York session yesterday, the Japanese yen pared some gains as US stocks rebounded in late session overnight on comments from St. Louis Fed James Bullard that the U.S. economic recovery is "reasonably good." Yen continued the retreat as Asia stocks recover. The EURJPY retrace 61.8% of the previous moves.
At my trading hour, EURJPY is at overbought position and expectation of consolidation my the week closing.
One thing to note is that Euro has been relatively resilient and was holding against dollar.
EURJPY started at around 125.20 in early of the week, fall to about 121.50 by the middle of the week and then fall to the week low at 119.60 on Thursday. By Friday EURJPY, risk appetite sentiment was seen as EURJPY recovered at around 121.60.
The Greek financial tragedy was the motivator for risk aversion in first three days of the week with a rebounded in US stock market contributed to risk aversion in the last day of the week.
