Friday, January 29, 2010

Short covering or Relief from risk aversion?.




A renewed risk aversion is triggering the current round of euro-selling. The shake in risk appetite seems to hint at resurfacing concern about the durability of the global recovery. The euro remained under pressure amid mounting concerns over Greece's sovereign debt and worries of a spill over into other countries such as Portugal, Spain and Italy.

EURJPY has been on the downward spiral to a low of 124.60 at 0:40 GMT. Then it ticked higher that appear to be a bout of general short covering. It met with a resistance at 125.64 and reversed direction downward within a descending channel.
At point A, with the of the lower channel line and 61.8% retracement, EURJPY has reached turning point for an upside move. Both lags are at bottom with BB Macd tugging the zero line. (refer to the 5 MTF.

Made my entry on the 1 MTF chart.. Entry for a buy at 7:02 with the lag crossing over the 15 level. Target is at B (5 MTF) or 1 (1 MTF) where there is a horizontal resistance of the opening price.

Make a sell entry at 7:21 after the inverted hammer (on 5 MTF) and bearish engulfing candles (on 1 MTF) with the approaching the 85 level. Exit at C point with a hammer candle on 5 MTF and 1 MTF. Make a reverse entry for a buy as EURJPY has break out from the channel and completed a retest of the upper line of the channel. First target price at D, resistance of last high and the second target at E- resistance at round number (126.00).


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