Saturday, December 6, 2008

Bad news….good result

It was a crazy week for Wall Street.

The market kicked off the week with a nearly 700-point drop in Dow Jones Industrial Average then gave way to a series of sessions that moved upwards on seesawed back and forth. On Friday the Dow rose 259.18 points, or 3.1%, to close at 8,635.42 but still recorded a loss of 2.2% for the week.

Monday heavy fall in the Dow was due to Asian stock markets trading lower on profit-taking and concerns about Japanese factories and real estate. The market opened above the daily Pivot point and from the word go, it fall downward breaching all moving average. The fall contributed to the blue and red Laguerre (lag) indicators to breach the 85 level indicating a bearish situation.

On Tuesday, in early trading hour RSI indicator moved above 30 level indicating possibility of market reversal and subsequently the blue lag crossed the 15 level after one hour trading with the red lag follow one half hours later. This signified that Monday bearish mood has been arrested. The weekly short term bull reached its resistance on the monthly Pivot point on Thursday. A double top was formed with daily Pivot point and a breached under the pivot point started the fall that found support at matching low candlesticks at 10.30 am. After the matching lows, the RSI inched above 30 and the blue lag above 15 which denoted a changing trend to the upside.

The Dow is now up after adsorbing an extremely weak US employment report. U.S. nonfarm payrolls plunged by an astonishing 533,000 in November -- the worst job loss in 34 years. It was only the fourth time in the past 58 years that payrolls had fallen by more than 500,000 in a month. and the 25th worst decline. As if that was not bad enough, the September and October were also revised sharply lower. The September number was revised from -284K to -403K (-119K) and the October number was revised to -320K from -240K (-80K). Since the recession began 11 months ago, a total of 1.9 million jobs have been lost.

Let see, how Bursa Saham Malaysia performed this week.

EWM
Bursa Malaysia (KLCI)

On Monday the Bursa Saham fall heavily in line with other Asian markets. On Tuesday it opened gap down but recovered with the gap still unfilled. Wednesday and Thursday interest in the market was low and the two days market almost opened and closed at the same level (doji). Friday with long weekend as next Monday is market holiday, and the general feeling of apprehension for the stock market in Europe and US the stock market closed lower for the week.

EWM that is traded in New York reacted after the Bursa Malaysia is closed for the day. With Bursa Malaysia performing badly on Monday and the Dow started moving southward, The EWM moved in different direction. It gap up and then the price just hobbling up and down between high of 6.90 and low of 6.65. On Friday it took the cue from Bursa Malaysia and also the Wall Street. It fall and hovering at 6.55-6.60 before at lunch time when the RSI rose above 50 and the upward moved started. At the lash hour of trading, prices spiked up ward and closed higher.
I expect that for the coming weeks, the Bursa Malaysia will react positively on any positive news in New York but any negative stance in New York has less bearing on the Bursa.

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